China powers Nissan’s profit recovery
Posted on November 13, 2009 at 9:08 amThe world’s largest country is now also single-handedly responsible for the brighter profit outlook at Nissan. Year-to-date sales in the Middle Kingdom are up 25 percent from a year ago, but October numbers spiked by more than 70 percent.
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CCA’s pipeline strong enough for higher price target
Posted on November 9, 2009 at 7:25 amAvondale Partners analyst Kevin Campbell says Corrections Corp. has the financial muscle, free cash flow and market position to add nicely to its book of business in the coming years. That has led him to raise his price target for the shares (Ticker: CXW) to $30 from $24, based on a 2011 profit estimate that is 15 percent higher than his 2009 forecast.
The company estimates that its inventory and development pipeline can add $50 million in incremental EBITDA over the long-term, with the majority of the interest and D&A expense already included in expectations. We estimate that this could add more than $0.25 in EPS at the current share count. In addition it has financial flexibility in 2009 and 2010 to take advantage of the current environment through continued development, share repurchases or debt reductions.
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O’Charley’s walks the fine value line
Posted on October 29, 2009 at 2:28 pm
Jeff Warne, the CEO of O’Charley’s, this morning told investors and analysts that, in trying to drive traffic to his restaurants, his crew isn’t interested in deeply discounting the meals it offers now. Doing that instead of coming up with new offerings, he said, is simply “transferring value to the guest somewhat at the expense of the shareholder.”
“We’re trying to find the right balance between profitability and driving guests. It’s clear that value is the dominant message and we’re trying to do it in a profitable way.”
On what was otherwise a rather tame call – as is often the case when expectations are met – one moment of suspense came from Morgan Keegan analyst Robert Derrington, who pressed CFO Larry Hyatt on why the company wasn’t raising guidance for the full year when it beat its own third-quarter estimate. In keeping guidance flat, Derrington wondered, was the company implying that business is going to get worse?
Not quite, said Hyatt. But the consumer spending picture is very murky and the fourth quarter is generally on the slow side, so sticking your neck out on guidance just doesn’t make sense, especially when operating costs are pretty much fixed at this point.
“The fundamental question is sales. We don’t have any more visibility into fourth-quarter sales than we suspect anyone else does.”
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America Service renews Wyoming work
Posted on October 28, 2009 at 7:07 am
Previewing the third-quarter earnings America Service Group will announce this afternoon, Avondale Partners analyst Kevin Campbell notes that the company recently renewed a $20 million contract with the state of Wyoming. As for Q3, the consensus has Brentwood-based America Service (Ticker: ASGR) earning 29 cents per share on revenue of $158 million.
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Analyst action: Louisiana-Pacific
Posted on October 12, 2009 at 1:52 pmJP Morgan analyst Claudia Shank Hueston has given shares of Louisiana-Pacific (Ticker: LPX) and other paper and forest product companies a boost by raising her earnings estimates. In the case of LP, Hueston said the company’s recent capital raise will improve its profit potential.
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Local hospitals ride Tenet’s coattails
Posted on September 14, 2009 at 9:47 amFor the second time in two months, Tenet Healthcare has raised its earnings estimates — this time by about 8 percent — saying volumes and payer mix defied the typical trend of a summer slowdown. The California-based company’s shares (Ticker: THC) are up almost 9 percent in early trading, helping lift Nashville-based players Community Health Systems (Ticker: CYH) and LifePoint (Ticker: LPNT).
SEE ALSO: Tenet’s first forecast boost from late July
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Genesco isn’t skating by
Posted on September 2, 2009 at 9:17 amRobert W. Baird analyst Mitch Kummetz says Genesco is performing well, but that the economy won’t allow it to post earnings growth in the current quarter. Shares of the Nashville-based retailer (Ticker: GCO) are up 23 percent this year.
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Avondale trims Genesco estimates on soft back-to-school season
Posted on August 26, 2009 at 3:16 pm
Ahead of Genesco’s second-quarter earnings report tomorrow, David Turner at Nashville-based Avondale Partners today cut his profit estimates for the period by four cents, citing weaker-than-expected sales at the company’s Journeys and Hat World divisions. Going forward, Turner also trimmed his Q3 number, “reflecting what we believe is generally a weak start to back-to-school, with the caveat that major markets such as Texas and Florida have started the season later this year.”
But on the whole, Turner isn’t worried about Genesco’s prospects. He has maintained his ‘market outperform’ rating and $29 price target and doesn’t see management cutting its full-year guidance tomorrow. Shares of Genesco (Ticker: GCO) rose more than 3 percent today and are up about 23 percent so far this year.
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Kirkland’s raises guidance
Posted on at 8:22 am
Home goods retailer Kirkland’s — which is officially headquartered in Jackson, but whose top execs work from McGavock Pike — says lower freight and real estate costs are helping it ramp up profits.
If second half comparable store sales trends remain positive, we would expect strong year-over-year improvement in margins, but not to the levels experienced in the first half of fiscal 2009. Should comparable store sales begin to moderate in the second half of the year, we still would expect improvement in merchandise and operating margins for fiscal 2009.
Shares of Kirkland’s (Ticker: KIRK) are set to pop at least 10 percent today. That would add to an impressive rally that has seen the stock more than triple this year.
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Caremark powers CVS earnings lift
Posted on August 4, 2009 at 7:23 amAnother strong quarter from its pharmacy benefit management division — revenues were up 15 percent from a year ago — has led CVS Caremark to again raise its earnings guidance. Shares of the company (Ticker: CVS) are up more than 4 percent in pre-market trading.
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A preview of local hospital company profits?
Posted on July 28, 2009 at 7:21 amTenet Healthcare this morning raised its earnings outlook for the second half of this year, suggesting Community Health and LifePoint should also post strong Q2 numbers. Tenet shares (Ticker: THC) are up almost 10 percent before the open, but CHS (Ticker: CYH) and LifePoint (Ticker: LPNT) — who will report their numbers this Friday and Aug. 7, respectively — are flat.
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Nice end to Healthways’ week
Posted on July 24, 2009 at 1:01 pmAfter it raised its earnings guidance yesterday – leading to an upgrade to ‘buy’ from BB&T Capital Markets – shares of the disease manager (Ticker: HWAY) are up almost 20 percent.
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Look for TSCO to surprise
Posted on July 21, 2009 at 7:51 amZacks Investment Research says Tractor Supply investors could be in for another treat this week when the company reports Q2 earnings. Shares of the Brentwood-based retailer (Ticker: TSCO) have risen 58 percent in the past year.
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HealthSpring sticking to ‘09 forecast
Posted on March 11, 2009 at 9:00 amThe Franklin-based insurer, whse shares have been among those to suffer due to concerns over the Obama administration’s health care plans, says it still expects to earn between $2 and $2.20 per diluted shares this year. The stock (Ticker: HS) is up more than 11 percent in early trading.
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CCA’s forecasting dilemma
Posted on February 10, 2009 at 11:01 pmSome of your big clients are looking to cut back. Other potential clients want to ramp up. And the Street wants a number now.
We have received communications from several of our state customers indicating some of the steps they may take, which could impact CCA. For example, several state customers have communicated intentions to reduce our per diems.
We are currently in discussions with those customers regarding the opportunity for CCA to reduce service levels under those contracts, so as to eliminate operating costs to offset some or all of the impact from a reduced per diem.
We can also see states take actions that negatively impact our populations, such as listening probe standards.
We have also received an expression of interest from potential new customers to use our beds as cost savings mechanisms to help balance their budgets. Needless to say, given the level of uncertainty and limited visibility, at this point in time it is extremely difficult to look out into 2009 and forecast the impact these issues will have.
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