AmSurg’s headwinds
Posted on March 10, 2010 at 8:53 amStifel Nicolaus analyst Robert Hawkins expects AmSurg’s margins to drop by half a point in 2010 and has lowered his estimates for the surgery center chain by about 3 percent. He still rates the stock (Ticker: AMSG) a ‘buy.’
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Steady buyers for Gaylord
Posted on March 9, 2010 at 12:58 pm
It’s hard to ignore the uptrend in shares of Gaylord Entertainment, which suggests some smart folks see the hospitality industry posting some solid summer numbers. Analysts have significantly ramped up their 2010 and 2011 estimates and the stock (Ticker: GET) is up by a third in the past month, a run that got a boost Friday on the back of volume that was almost double the daily average. Today’s volume is down a bit, but the trend is intact.
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Genesco still good value
Posted on March 8, 2010 at 9:22 amThe Street has hiked its earnings estimates for Genesco by 8 percent in less than two months and the retailer’s shares (Ticker: GCO) are up 30 percent in three weeks, but Bill Wilton at Zacks says investors should still take a look.
SEE ALSO: Women’s Wear Daily’s take on the company’s strong Q4 as well as some info on its first Canadian stores.
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Counting on an America Service surge
Posted on March 4, 2010 at 9:10 amKevin Campbell at Avondale Partners says investors should add to their stakes in America Service Group following the company’s 2010 guidance, which he expects will move higher during the course of the year. He says that, using the company’s average profit margin since mid-2007 (8.7 percent), profits should come in 4 percent higher than what CEO Richard Hallworth and his team are forecasting.
In addition, the gross margin in 4Q09 was 9.1%, 40 bps better than the average in our above analysis. With the contribution from Michigan expected to improve going forward, gross margins could improve.
Campbell has hiked his target price to $21 from $18. America Service (Ticker: ASGR) is up about 1 percent this morning at $16.67.
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Does the Street doubt Tractor Supply?
Posted on March 3, 2010 at 8:50 amIn a post reporting one analyst’s approval of Tractor Supply’s first-ever dividend, BusinessWeek points out an interesting discrepancy. Despite having hiked their average EPS 2010 projection for the Brentwood-based retailer (Ticker: TSCO) by 11 cents in the past month, analysts are still 5 percent short of the middle of the guidance CEO Jim Wright and his team have established.
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Morgan Stanley tweaks CHS forecast
Posted on February 23, 2010 at 8:06 amA trio of analysts at Morgan Stanley says Community Health Systems is in a good spot for the next few years. They see bad debt as a percent of revenue rising slightly this year but have reiterated their ‘market perform’ rating on the stock (Ticker: CYH) slightly raised their earnings estimates.
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Healthways outlook good, but stock set for a down day
Posted on February 17, 2010 at 7:10 amOn its year-end earnings call yesterday, Healthways’ management was optimistic about its prospects for 2010 and beyond, noting growing interest in and understanding of the scope and integration of its wellness services.
Helped by strict cost control efforts, the company posted fourth-quarter and full-year numbers Tuesday in line with analyst expectations. Jefferies analyst Art Henderson said given the uncertain economy and contract losses in the past year, Healthways has done well and should continue to do so barring any unforeseen economic slide.
“I think their guidance is conservative and their valuation is conservative, which points to better performance,” Henderson said. Healthways issued its 2010 earnings per share guidance at $1.05 to $1.18.
Still, shares (Ticker: HWAY) are poised for a down day, with the stock trading off after hours Tuesday.
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Avondale: Demand strengthening for Psych Solutions
Posted on February 5, 2010 at 8:07 amKevin Campbell at Avondale Partners says usage of Psychiatric Solutions’ beds in the fourth quarter is likely to be higher than expected and sets the stage for a nice 2010. He has hiked his Q4 estimate by 4 percent and his 2010 outlook by 6.5 percent.
We continue to assume no change in price in light of state budgetary pressures. With increases still expected from commercial payors and Medicare market basket updates, this could be conservative.
Campbell rates Psych Solutions (Ticker: PSYS) at ‘outperform’ and has a $28 target for the shares, which closed Thursday at $22.60. They’re down about 18 percent since last August.
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Analyst action: CCA, Tennessee Commerce
Posted on January 25, 2010 at 7:19 amJamie Sullivan at RBC Capital Markets has trimmed his price target on the shares of Corrections Corp. of America to $26 from $30 after Arizona’s budget includes moving several thousands out-of-state prison beds back home. CCA shares (Ticker: CXW) lost 14 percent last week, but have risen 17 percent over the past six months.
At FTN Equity Capital Markets, Jeff Davis has reiterated his ‘neutral’ rating of Tennessee Commerce, but doubled his 2010 earnings estimates to 80 cents per share after the bank said its credit quality improved substantially in the fourth quarter. Tennessee Commerce shares (Ticker: TNCC) jumped more than 20 percent last week but are flat since July.
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Analyst: Buy Genesco on dip
Posted on January 19, 2010 at 8:00 amAvondale Partners’ David Turner says that, despite reporting quarter-to-date sales that were not well received, the mid- to long-term thesis at Genesco remains intact. He has lowered his estimates by about 2 percent, but retained his ‘market outperform’ rating and $29 price target on the shares. (Ticker: GCO)
Weakish top-line trends at Journeys undoubtedly mar visibility, but the softness appears relegated to one category and inventory levels are clean which should minimize further risk to EPS. Also, multiple cost items continue to subtly move in favor of the company and should become more meaningful going forward.
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Have banks still not faced up to their troubles?
Posted on January 18, 2010 at 12:14 pmFormer Banc of America and Credit Suisse researcher David Goldman says banks’ earnings power will be severely hamstrung in the coming quarters.
What are the banks worth now?
Their commercial and industrial loans are down 20% year on year, and consumer loans are shrinking (November showed the biggest drop in outstanding consumer credit on record). So much for the most profitable part of their book.
Al Villalon, senior financials analyst at First American Funds, disagrees.
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Genesco right on track
Posted on January 12, 2010 at 8:19 amShoe and hat retailer Genesco said same-store sales are up 1 percent in its fourth fiscal quarter to date, helped by a 7 percent gain at its Hat World division. That puts the Nashville-based company (Ticker: GCO) right on track to post earnings in its previously announced range. Analysts are looking for $1.12.
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Analyst: Look for Pinnacle to miss
Posted on January 11, 2010 at 8:16 amIt’s one of the more off-hand, matter-of-fact statements you’ll see in an analyst note, but in an update of Tennessee’s housing markets, Jeff Davis at FTN Equity Capital Markets says he expects Pinnacle to miss the Street’s consensus estimate when it reports fourth-quarter earnings on the 19th. That would continue a trend from 2009, when Pinnacle shares (Ticker: PNFP) fell almost 50 percent.
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Analyst actions: Pinnacle, NHI
Posted on December 11, 2009 at 10:19 amStephen Moss at Janney Montgomery Scott has restarted the firm’s coverage of Pinnacle Financial Partners with a ‘neutral’ rating and a target less than 7 percent above the stock’s (Ticker: PNFP) Thursday close. Moss is more pessimistic than others on credit costs — “We await better clarity on asset quality trends before recommending the stock” — and has his 2010 EPS estimate more than 50 cents below the consensus.
Over at Stifel Nicolaus, Jerry Doctrow this week upgraded National Health Investors (Ticker: NHI) from ‘hold’ to ‘buy.’ The Murfreesboro-based REIT last week said it had settled a potentially costly legal dispute with a previously affiliated nonprofit entity.
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China powers Nissan’s profit recovery
Posted on November 13, 2009 at 9:08 amThe world’s largest country is now also single-handedly responsible for the brighter profit outlook at Nissan. Year-to-date sales in the Middle Kingdom are up 25 percent from a year ago, but October numbers spiked by more than 70 percent.
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