A jobs jolt
Posted on November 6, 2009 at 10:49 amI know the basic argument that employment is a lagging indicator, but who’s going to stand up and say this number won’t make for a dismal holiday shopping season? And keep in mind that the official unemployment rate doesn’t account for people who have simply stopped looking for work. Add them in and we’re getting way too close to 20 percent.
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How did a financial crisis and an economic downturn result in higher productivity numbers?
Posted on November 5, 2009 at 1:28 pmMichael Mandel walks you through the numbers:
This morning’s productivity numbers showed a huge gain in output per hour in the third quarter—up at an annual rate of 9.5% in the nonfarm business sector.
But here’s something else. If we are to believe these numbers, the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression has actually produced a productivity gain of 5.1% since the downturn started in the fourth quarter of 2007.
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Seeing red
Posted on at 11:23 am
Barry Ritholtz passes on a graphic we’d all like to see be much blander.
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Services sector expands
Posted on November 4, 2009 at 1:52 pmFrom the Institute for Supply Management:
“The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased 0.1 percentage point to 55.2 percent. This is the third consecutive month this index has reflected growth since September 2008. The New Orders Index increased 1.4 percentage points to 55.6 percent, and the Employment Index decreased 3.2 percentage points to 41.1 percent. The Prices Index increased 4.2 percentage points to 53 percent in October, indicating an increase in prices paid from September. According to the NMI, nine non-manufacturing industries reported growth in October. Respondents’ comments remain mixed and are mostly cautious about business conditions and the overall economy.”
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A glimmer of CRE hope
Posted on November 3, 2009 at 9:46 amPrices for commercial property rose more than 4 percent last quarter, meaning the cratering of the market some are fearing may not materialize.
The TBI tracks the prices that institutional investors, such as pension funds pay or receive when buying or selling commercial properties such as shopping centers, apartment complexes and office towers.
The price index at the third quarter stood at 36.5 percent below its 2007 peak, up from its 39 percent deficit seen last quarter, which now could be the trough and suggests the U.S. commercial property market may have finally found a price bottom.
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A little more patience needed for hotel revival
Posted on November 2, 2009 at 10:50 am
The latest version of Smith Travel Research’s index of leading indicators shows the industry has slowed since the summer. The upshot: While the index is generally about five months ahead of the industry as a whole, “it appears that in our current cycle the lead time might be extended.”
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Apartment rents to slide further
Posted on at 7:47 amData from the National Multi Housing Council shows the apartment market finding its feet, but observers don’t see price support coming soon from the job market.
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Cash for clunkers’ local boost
Posted on October 30, 2009 at 2:26 pm
Middle Tennessee’s factory sector saw a nice boost in activity during September, with hours worked at durable goods manufacturers jumping almost 20 percent.
Local industrial property market ahead of nation’s
Posted on at 9:44 am
Data compiled by Colliers shows Nashville – along with regional competitors Louisville and Indianapolis – with an industrial real estate vacancy rate that is well below the national average. Memphis, Atlanta and Cincinnati, on the other hand, are struggling with double-digit numbers.
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This is how the housing inventory will be whittled down
Posted on at 9:14 am
Numbers from MTSU’s BERC show the value of Nashville-area building permits the past three months was only about a third of the volume from the boom years. Check out the raw numbers and other regional stats here.
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Don’t believe the bad news
Posted on October 29, 2009 at 9:30 am
Mark Perry says reports of discouraged and disenchanted consumers need to be discounted a good bit. The world looked just as bleak coming out of the last few recessions.
Consumer confidence remained low for two years following the end of the 1990-1991 recession and it took about three years for consumer confidence to rise to the pre-recession level. The circled pattern following the 2001 recession was similar.
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GDP growth tops estimates
Posted on at 7:44 amThe consensus from economists on third-quarter economic acticity had been growth of 3.3 percent. The Bureau of Economic Analysis says it was a little higher than that, with the auto industry — thanks to cash for clunkers — accounting for almost half of the growth.
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The housing crisis will peak in 2011
Posted on October 28, 2009 at 11:59 am
Now that the subprime mortgage default wave has played itself out, it’s time to prepare for the damage that will be inflicted by souring option ARMs. The rates on many of those loans will start resetting next spring.
The types of homes that are actually selling
Posted on at 8:06 amBarry Ritholtz passes on some numbers about just where the rise in home sales is coming from this fall. Which raises the question of whether the housing market really is ready to stand on its two feet again. Those commenting here are of a pretty firm opinion that it isn’t.
Let’s think for a moment…70% of September sales $250,00 and under. Well of course! The $8,000 credit almost covers the down payment in this range (FHA 3.5%.) Now with a $15,000 credit we can start to move some of those @ $500,000.
Give me a break…
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The case for a scorching 2010
Posted on at 7:28 am
Formula Capital’s James Altucher says a double dip isn’t his main concern for the coming year. The hedge fund manager is more anxious about rip-roaring economic growth — powered by companies replenishing inventories and the stimulus doing its thang — and a huge run up in the stock market.
“It’s gonna be enormous… We’re barely going to look back.”
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