So no one is actually clicking all that Viagra spam?
Posted on March 4, 2010 at 8:33 amA nifty chart from the folks over at the provactively named ChartPorn shows a breakdown in major retail categories of e-commerce vs. bricks-and-mortar sales.
We still shop at stores, it seems, but nearly three out of four electronics sales are (appropriately) made online, as are three out of four music and video sales. One sector where the real stores still far outpace the virtual ones - drugs and medicines. Less than 9 percent of drug sales are made online.
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More skepticism on retail sales
Posted on December 16, 2009 at 10:04 amMarket analyst Bill King outlines the reasons why we should put little stock in the government’s upbeat retail sales numbers published last week.
How about this warning from the Census Department about their ‘estimates’: The margin of sampling error, as used on page 1, gives a range about the estimate which is a 90 percent confidence interval. If, for example, the percent change estimate is +1.2 percent and its estimated standard error is 0.9 percent, then the margin of sampling error is ±1.65 x 0.9 percent or ±1.5 percent, and the 90 percent confidence interval is –0.3 percent to +2.7 percent…
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Caution on consumers
Posted on December 14, 2009 at 9:20 amReading through this roundup of economists’ reactions to the strong Friday retail sales numbers, I came away wondering two things: Did electronics retailers make even a dime off their door-buster sales and, more importantly, what are the chances this number gets revised downward a good bit given how surprising it was to so many? This was, after all, the first set of numbers using a new sample.
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Digesting the retail surprise
Posted on December 11, 2009 at 12:38 pmThe stronger-than-expected rise in November retail sales has a number of people talking. James Picerno says it’s another sign we’re likely to avoid a painful double-dip, but a snap back is still out of the question.
[W]e’ll need to see improving signs in the labor market before we’re convinced that retail sales are on a sustained rebound. There’s reason to think that the economy will soon be creating jobs on a net basis, as suggested by the trend in nonfarm payrolls. Even then, there’s some doubt about the magnitude and duration of the expected recovery in the labor market.
Plus, David Rosenberg delivers this little statistical nugget.
That said, the combination of the sequential runup and the detonation in November 2008, when sales plummeted 10% (leaving today’s number with an extremely depressed year-ago base), brought the YoY trend in overall retail sales back into positive terrain (+1.8% from -2.2% in October and -6.3% in September) for the first time since August 2008 — the month before Lehman collapsed.
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Only 30%?
Posted on November 12, 2009 at 8:20 am
An NPD study says three out of 10 people will cut back on their holiday spending this year, which is expected to be the second straight of negative seasonal retail sales. Strikes me as a little low, especially when Wal-Mart just reported negative same-store sales.
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‘A little less cautious’ versus ‘Crash for clunkers’
Posted on October 15, 2009 at 7:36 amSeptember retail sales came in better than expected, but opinions vary widely about where the consumer — and hence the economy — goes from here. Phil Izzo at the Journal collects some thoughts that span the spectrum.
While it looks like Wall Street employees will have the cash to buy holiday gifts, the country is a lot bigger and today’s retail sales give some pause to the notion that the economy has positively turned positive.
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Is retail revving up?
Posted on September 16, 2009 at 6:44 am
Based on the unexpectedly strong sales figures released yesterday, the few remaining optimists among us could make that case. But Ben Bernanke says we shouldn’t get excited by any stretch of the imagination. There will be no consumer-led recovery this time, no steep upslope to match the free fall of the past year.
“It’s still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time, as many people will still find that their job security and employment status is not what they wish it was.”
SEE ALSO: A Journal story with upbeat and skeptical economists chipping in with their thoughts
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The Middle Tennessee consumer is wheezing
Posted on September 2, 2009 at 5:28 pm
The researchers at MTSU’s Business & Economic Research Center have compiled the main indicators for the second quarter: Among the ‘highlights’ is another sizable drop in taxable sales, which can be used as a rough proxy for consumer spending. Sales fell almost 4 percent from early this year — their sixth straight quarterly drop — and are off more than 15 percent from the late-2007 peak.
It is difficult to imagine a scenario in which consumer spending leads the midstate to recovery in the absence of job growth. In coming months, however, housing construction should shift from a drag on tax collections to a positive contribution.
SEE ALSO: BERC’s latest update of the region’s building permit activity and other recent posts featuring economic indicators good and bad
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The cautious but resilient consumer
Posted on June 11, 2009 at 2:32 pmThe boss of Collective Brands says last year’s stimulus checks will make second-quarter retail sales comparisons tough, but that things will get progressively better after that.
“Consumer spending as a percentage of GDP has moved down, will probably continue to move down through the end of year, and then normalize as we get into somewhere in early-to-mid next year, from our point of view,” says Rubel.
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There’s no state tax holiday this spring
Posted on March 29, 2009 at 2:04 pmBut that won’t keep some area businesses from trying to a gain promotional edge based on the concept:
While shoppers may not realize yet that there won’t be a holiday this spring, several middle Tennessee retailers are offering their own economic stimulus. Electronic Express and Haverty’s Furniture both advertise a “Tax Free Weekend”.
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Will the trend be unbroken
Posted on February 4, 2009 at 8:55 pmWhen it comes to album sales, it doesn’t look like it.
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Leading the way down
Posted on January 14, 2009 at 12:44 pmFollowing the expected dismal December sales report, local retail and restaurant stocks are off big time.
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On Tractor Supply and deflation
Posted on December 19, 2008 at 11:31 amWilliam Blair analyst Jack Murphy says the retailer (Ticker: TSCO) has a chance during the downturn to add to its store base, but that deflation could become a concern.
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My good man, I’ll have your finest paint-thinner vodka — in the plastic bottle, of course
Posted on at 7:55 amDespite the recession, liquor sales are holding their own.
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Give those stats some Beano
Posted on December 15, 2008 at 5:39 pmChris Roush argues for removing car and gas sales from retail sales reports:
“About halfway down, you get this: ‘Excluding both autos and gas, retail sales increased 0.3%, the first increase since July.’
“Come again? An increase in retail sales? A possible sign of life? There was a lot of discounting going on in November, so the savvy investor will keep that in mind when looking at raw sales numbers. But surely, even allowing for discounting, this is notable, no?
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